Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
In this week’s game, Breece Hall is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 84th percentile among RBs with 15.0 carries.
Among all RBs, Breece Hall ranks in the 87th percentile for carries this year, taking on 55.6% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
Breece Hall checks in as one of the best running backs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.25 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Miami’s group of DTs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

Cons

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tim Boyle in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to run on 37.4% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
This year, the anemic Dolphins run defense has yielded a colossal 4.08 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s ground game: the 23rd-worst rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards