Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chargers vs. Ravens
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+100) after it opened @ 48.5 (-117).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 133.6 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
- This week, Austin Ekeler is expected by the projection model to slot into the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs with 13.8 carries.
- Among all running backs, Austin Ekeler ranks in the 86th percentile for carries this year, making up 54.7% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- With an outstanding total of 59.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (84th percentile), Austin Ekeler has been as one of the best pure rushers in the league this year.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The model projects the Chargers to be the least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
- Opposing squads have run for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 99.0 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
