Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+100/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-135) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his team’s run game this year (39.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (65.2%).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Antonio Gibson has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (40.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards