Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Antonio GibsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Commanders vs. Falcons
Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+100/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-135) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
- The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his team’s run game this year (39.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (65.2%).
- The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- Antonio Gibson has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (40.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
