Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 78.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce has accumulated far more air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (93.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) vs. TEs this year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) to TEs this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards