Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Friday’s slate features the second round games of both Groups A and B. Our first match features Wales and Iran, followed by Qatar/Senegal, Netherlands/Ecuador and finally, the match we’ve been waiting for since the draw was announced, USA/England.
After this round, we’ll have a much clearer view of who is likely to move on to the knockout stage. A couple of squads, namely Iran, Senegal and Qatar, would be eliminated with a loss. Let’s get right into it.
Wales vs. Iran
Many of us know the saying “you’re never as good or as bad as your last game,” and Iran better hope that’s the case. Their shambolic defensive performance against England has put them in a deep hole already, and any more breakdowns in the back could end their tournament. Iran were able to scratch out two goals against England, but starting GK Alireza Beiranvand will be out with an assumed concussion, and the back line did back-up Hosseini Majid no favors. Despite the ass-kicking on Monday, Iran has still won 12 of its last 15 competitive matches. This could be their best opportunity to take all three points, and they’ll have to take advantage to keep their tourney hopes alive.
Wales are coming off a mediocre performance that saw manager Rob Page rip into the squad at halftime after an opening 45 minutes in which they were dominated by the US. Whatever he said flipped a switch, and Wales were able to keep possession and eventually netted the equalizer thanks to a boneheaded penalty by USA defender Walker Zimmerman. The Dragons didn’t really challenge USA GK Matt Turner much until two decent chances in the second half, outside of the PK. I’m expecting both teams to play a bit cautiously to start, both afraid of what could be a tourney-ending mistake.
Most Likely Scores
(all prices from DraftKings, risking .2x)
- Wales 1:0 Iran (+500)
- Wales 1:1 Iran (+525)
- Wales 0:0 Iran (+800)
- Wales 0:1 Iran (+850)
Qatar vs. Senegal
Qatar/Senegal offers us our first potential elimination game of the 2022 World Cup, with both teams losing their respective openers. Qatar did not impress in their World Cup debut versus Ecuador, and they will have to turn things around quickly against a Senegal squad that is every bit as talented as the team they faced on Sunday. Manager Felix Sanchez said his team had a “terrible start” and that things will have to change drastically. Let’s just say I’m not sure how much things are going to change against a team with the talent of Senegal.
Senegal’s late defeat at the hands of the Netherlands was a bit unlucky in my opinion, having not allowed a shot on goal until the 84th minute, which resulted in a goal from Cody Gakpo. They then conceded again in the 98th minute after throwing everyone forward in a desperate attempt to equalize. The Lions of Teranga missed Bayern’s Sadio Mane’s finishing dearly, registering 15 shots without breaking through for their first goal of this World Cup. I expect that to change quickly against the likes of Qatar, who look like the worst team in the tournament by far. I’m expecting Senegal to win this game, setting up a Group A elimination match between Senegal and Ecuador.
Most Likely Scores
(all prices from DraftKings, risking .2x)
- Qatar 0:2 Senegal (+600)
- Qatar 0:1 Senegal (+450)
- Qatar 1:2 Senegal (+850)
- Qatar 0:3 Senegal (+1200)
Netherlands vs. Ecuador
The Netherlands escaped a good challenge from Senegal in their opening match, and the group A favorites will now try to slow down an Ecuador attack that ran rampant in the first 45 minutes versus Qatar. Long-time Netherlands manager Louis van Gaal called his squad “messy,” after their opener, but luckily for them, it may not matter in this group. The Netherlands are by far the best team of the four, and after dispatching Senegal, and Qatar still to play, they are in the best position to win the group. Ecuador will offer a tough test, but just like against Senegal, I anticipate the Oranje’s quality to shine through at the end of the 90 minutes.
Ecuador looked excellent on Sunday, but the team they face on Friday is worlds apart from the Qataris, especially defensively. Talisman Enner Valencia completely took over the match, putting Ecuador into the history books as the first team to beat a host nation in their opener. This will be the toughest test for Ecuador in many, many years, and they will have to maintain their defensive discipline if they hope to escape this matchup with a result. La Tri didn’t allow a shot on goal against Qatar, but let’s not assume that trend will continue vs the Netherlands.
Most Likely Scores
(all prices from DraftKings, risking .2x)
- Netherlands 2:0 Ecuador (+750)
- Netherlands 1:0 Ecuador (+550)
- Netherlands 1:1 Ecuador (+600)
- Netherlands 0:0 Ecuador (+1100)
USA vs. England
USA had a dominant opening 45 minutes from Wales and then decided “what if we just stopped doing everything that was working?” Very frustrating to watch, but ultimately, the US didn’t generate very many chances outside of Timothy Weah’s goal. This is serious cause for concern against what will be a significantly more talented back line on Friday afternoon. They will have to take a look at what they did offensively in that first half and continue to build off that if they want to get what would be a monumental result against England.
The Three Lions absolutely feasted on Iran for all 90 minutes to earn their largest win in a World Cup opener. They were dominant from start to finish and will be looking to continue that against what will be an overmatched US team. There isn’t a single position where England doesn’t out-class the Americans, and this would be the biggest group stage win in US history if they can pull something off. If the US are to have a chance, they are going to have to maintain the attacking prowess they displayed in the first half against Wales. The way the USMNT just packed it in for the second half and tried to cling to a one-goal advantage will not work against a team of England’s quality. Unfortunately for us, I think England win comfortably, leaving the US with an absolute must-win against Iran on the final group stage matchday.
Most Likely Scores
(all prices from DraftKings, risking .2x)
- England 2:1 USA (+850)
- England 1:0 USA (+650)
- England 2:0 USA (+700)
- England 1:1 USA (+700)
Best Bets
- Senegal -0.75 (-131) 1x
- Senegal and Over 1.5 (+111) .5x
- England -0.75 (-138) 1x
- Iran +0.5 (-125) 1x
