Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.6% run rate.
Alvin Kamara has been given 59.5% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Cons

The Saints are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
Alvin Kamara has run for significantly fewer yards per game (55.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 3.49 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards