NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-113/-121).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-121) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- Noah Fant has been a less important option in his offense’s passing offense this season (12.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (18.5%).
- Noah Fant has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has compiled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
