Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
For this week’s NFL same game parlay, we have one of the best situations in NFL betting. My favorite teams to target are those that have a narrow funnel of touches. The anti-49ers is a good way to think about this. The 49ers have a ton of weapons and can use them in a ton of different ways. Maybe it’s running back Christian McCaffrey catching passes or wide receiver Deebo Samuel running a jet sweep. Maybe neither of those guys are heavily involved and they exploit a ground mismatch with Elijah Mitchell or a bad coverage matchup for Brandon Aiyuk. The number of ways they can attack are endless and that makes them tough to predict for production.
The teams we are targeting Friday do not have that level of uncertainty. They have very few players who handle a lot of their touches. The two teams I am referencing here are the Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks. They play in a game with a high 48-point total and that is what we will be targeting for the NFL Week 12 same game parlay.
DraftKings NFL Week 12 Same Game Parlay
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown
Kenneth Walker Anytime Touchdown
This game has a big total currently sitting at 47.5 to 48 on most books. That means we should see a lot of touchdowns. With both teams concentrating touches in the hands of very few players, this breaks down as a game where we want to capitalize on those narrow funnels. With such a high total, the part of the funnel we want to exploit here is the touchdown equity.
Davante Adams has seen 44 of the 111 passes Derek Carr has thrown in the last three weeks. That’s a target share around 40%. He is far and away the No. 1 option in the Las Vegas pass attack. Adams has scored 5 touchdowns in the last three weeks, getting at least one in each of those games. With Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller both out, he has not seen less than 13 targets in any of these matchups. Adams is one of the few receivers paying less than even money to find the end zone this week, but we still have value on his number based on his recent role and production.
Josh Jacobs was a guy people shied away from in fantasy drafts with the fear that he would be in some kind of timeshare. Those fears proved unfounded through the first 11 weeks of the season. He has had back-to-back games with 27 touches and no less than 20 in any of the last three. His share of backfield touches is rivaled only by Saquon Barkley with both guys around 85% of their teams touches at the RB position. Jacobs has already scored seven times on the year and is also a bit too cheap for that level of involvement in a game with this high of a total.
Kenneth Walker has scored seven touchdowns in the last six weeks, finding the end zone at least once in five of those games. He finally had a down game last time out against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but even that game had a silver lining. He struggled on the ground, but he did end up seeing eight targets, catching six passes for 55 yards. Add that to his 10 carries and he had a total of 16 touches, which was actually the lowest amount he has had since taking the reins for an injured Rashaad Penny. Unlike the WR duo of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, we know where all the backfield touches are coming from in Seattle. If the Seahawks score on the ground, recent results show us the man likely to do it is going to be Walker.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
