Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. DillonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, A.J. Dillon’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-133) after it opened @ 51.5 (-121).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast A.J. Dillon to accrue 15.7 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
- The leading projections forecast A.J. Dillon to be a less important option in his team’s ground game in this week’s game (35.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.7% in games he has played).
- As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in football last year.
Cons
- An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Packers being an enormous -8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 2nd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to call only 61.9 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- A.J. Dillon’s rushing effectiveness (3.47 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (17th percentile when it comes to running backs).
- The Detroit Lions defense boasts the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 3.69 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
