NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chargers vs. Ravens
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 55.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run 66.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
- With an impressive 91.8% Route% (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places among the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
- Zay Flowers checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 53.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
- The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
