Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Mike White in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to total 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin has posted far more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).
Tyler Conklin’s 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 31.7.
Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards