Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jeff Wilson from EV Insight

Jeff WilsonRushing Yards

Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-145/+115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-145) after it opened @ 81.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 43.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accumulate 19.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Jeffery Wilson has rushed for a lot more yards per game (66.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Opposing offenses have run for the most yards in the league (178 per game) against the Houston Texans defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards