Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tim Boyle in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- With a terrific 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (78th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (55.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
- When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Miami’s group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
