Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Trey McBride from EV Insight

Trey McBrideReceiving Yards

Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-143) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Trey McBride to earn 8.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs.
While Trey McBride has been responsible for 16.8% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Arizona’s passing offense in this game at 24.5%.
Trey McBride’s 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a significant boost in his receiving talent over last season’s 29.0 rate.
This year, the anemic Rams defense has yielded a colossal 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Arizona O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards