Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Isaiah Likely from EV Insight

Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards

Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-114) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).

Pros

The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run 66.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
In this week’s contest, Isaiah Likely is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets.
The predictive model expects Isaiah Likely to be a more integral piece of his offense’s air attack this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played).

Cons

This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
After accumulating 26.0 air yards per game last season, Isaiah Likely has produced significantly fewer this season, now sitting at 6.0 per game.
Isaiah Likely has notched a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (28.0).
With a subpar 0.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (11th percentile) since the start of last season, Isaiah Likely stands as one of the best tight ends in the pass game in the league in the open field.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards