Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-117).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-most run-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.1% run rate.
James Conner has been a less important option in his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for just 62.9% of snaps compared to 79.5% last year.
With an excellent rate of 69.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (96th percentile), James Conner places as one of the top running backs in the NFL this year.
This year, the fierce Rams run defense has yielded a puny 4.50 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s ground game: the 23rd-best rate in the NFL.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Los Angeles’s collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards