Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-most run-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.1% run rate.
- James Conner has been a less important option in his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for just 62.9% of snaps compared to 79.5% last year.
- With an excellent rate of 69.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (96th percentile), James Conner places as one of the top running backs in the NFL this year.
- This year, the fierce Rams run defense has yielded a puny 4.50 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s ground game: the 23rd-best rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Los Angeles’s collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
