Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (+100) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Terry McLaurin has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 68.0 yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Cons

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Terry McLaurin has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards