Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to skew 13.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- In this game, Terry McLaurin is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.1 targets.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.34 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.1 per game) this year.
- Terry McLaurin’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating just 8.03 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.90 rate last season.
- Terry McLaurin’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, notching a mere 3.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.84 rate last year.
- This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has given up a mere 108.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
