Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-115/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- This week, Sam LaPorta is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.7 targets.
- When talking about air yards, Sam LaPorta grades out in the towering 94th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a superb 48.0 per game.
- Sam LaPorta’s 45.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in football: 95th percentile for TEs.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a massive 8.5-point favorite this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- With a bad 3.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the top pass-game tight ends in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
