Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Romeo DoubsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Romeo Doubs’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-114) after it opened @ 37.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Packers being an enormous -8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- In this contest, Romeo Doubs is projected by the projections to find himself in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.3 targets.
- Romeo Doubs has accrued significantly more air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to call only 61.9 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Packers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
- Romeo Doubs’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 63.2%.
- Romeo Doubs has been one of the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a mere 7.15 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile among WRs
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.09 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
