Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Puka NacuaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Our trusted projections expect Puka Nacua to accumulate 9.9 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Puka Nacua has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 32.3% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- In regards to air yards, Puka Nacua grades out in the towering 89th percentile among wideouts this year, averaging an impressive 94.0 per game.
- Puka Nacua checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a fantastic 91.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.
Cons
- The model projects the Rams to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Cardinals, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
