NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/24)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops. I hope you had an excellent Thanksgiving full of family and food, and I hope you enjoy your leftovers Friday while you watch some NBA In-Season Tournament basketball. This is the second to last slate of group play games, which means some teams know they have to win and some teams know it’s too late for them to advance to the next stage.

Check out Thursday’s Hoops with Noops for a breakdown of where each team stands in the IST, but I will mention some things briefly again today. Motivation is key to handicapping NBA basketball and often very difficult to determine. The In-Season Tournament has brought some clarity in that regard as many players have said they want to win it even though it’s not an NBA Championship.

Let’s dive into the night’s games, see who cares and who doesn’t, review some projections, and make some bets. Of course, since it’s Friday you can find a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Now, onto the basketball.

NBA Best Bets for Friday

Miami Heat at New York Knicks

Current Line – Knicks -5.5, 212
My Projection – Knicks 111, Heat 105
Key Injuries – Tyler Herro is out. Bam Adebayo is questionable.

I know your mind is full of memories of brutally low-scoring Heat/Knicks games of the past, but put that aside, because Friday’s matchup is going to look different. New York has a top-10 offense that looks downright modern with all the 3-point shots and movement. Miami is still a great defensive team, but not without their leader on that end, Bam Adebayo. Bam is listed questionable and might play, but players added to the injury report the day of the game generally don’t play. Not enough can be said about how great Adebayo is defensively. He protects the rim, cleans the glass, and can guard anyone on the court 1 on 1. Miami’s defense is much worse without him, and it forces them to push the ball and try to make up for his absence by scoring more points. Miami’s offensive rating and average points per game increase without Bam. This game is also huge for both teams and their chances at making the next stage of the In-Season Tournament. Miami can still advance if they lose, but it’s going to be difficult. The Knicks must win tonight. That should give us a well-played game with both teams pushing to score as much as they can. This all adds up to a nice spot to play an over and my projections agree. Let’s bet over 212, or really any number 213 or lower, for this matchup.

Bet

Heat/Knicks Over 212 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors

Current Line – Raptors -5.5, 217
My Projection – Raptors 111, Bulls 103 
Key Injuries – Zach LaVine is questionable. 

These teams played at the start of the season in what was the second game of the year for both, and it was one of the ugliest games you’ll ever see. The Raptors were able to squeeze out a 1-point win, 104-103. Since then, one team has shown signs of improvement, and the other appears to be on the brink of total collapse. Toronto entered the season with a new head coach and the plan to build the offense around Scottie Barnes featuring Pascal Siakam. They struggled to score for their first six games of the season when they averaged 104.5 points per game, just 99.5 PPG if you exclude their 130-point explosion against Milwaukee. Over their next nine games, the Raptors averaged 117 PPG. Barnes is playing great basketball and Siakam finally looks comfortable scoring the basketball. The Bulls announced that the team and Zach LaVine agreed it was time to trade LaVine. Guess who is still on the team and in the locker room every night? This is the NBA equivalent of breaking up with someone you live with before the lease ends. It’s not a comfortable situation and it’s starting to bear out in the results. Chicago’s team total is 105.5 and that looks a few points too high to me. The offense is slow, based on two pointers, and may be without its best scorer (LaVine) for this game. I don’t mind a full game under, but I don’t want exposure to Toronto having a big night scoring.

Bet

Chicago Bulls Team Total Under 105.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets

Current Line – Nuggets -3, 214.5
My Projection – Nuggets 110, Rockets 103 
Key Injuries – Jamal Murray, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore are out. 

The Rockets are 7-1 at home and 0-5 on the road this season. One of those wins at home was as a 4.5-point underdog against this very same Denver Nuggets team. It was a close game in which neither team shot well, and it was a bad schedule spot for Denver that may not look bad at first glance. Denver had a three-day break then traveled to Houston just to play that game before going back home to play against the Los Angeles Clippers. A three-day break is nice, but it does create rust and one game road trips in a look ahead spot can be tough. This is the last of a five-game road trip for the Nuggets, but that’s not nearly as tricky as their last game in Houston plus it’s a revenge spot. Despite that improvement for Denver, the market has the spread 1.5 points lower than their last matchup. Maybe Houston continues their dominance at home throughout this season, but these things generally regress to average, and I think tonight will be a step in that direction. We also have the added motivation of the In-Season Tournament for Denver who has to win this game to have a chance to advance to the next stage. I make the Nuggets six-point favorites, so I’ll happily lay the 3 points the market is offering me.

Bet

Denver Nuggets -3 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Not For Noops – Quick Thoughts on Games I’m Not Betting

Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic +5.5, 222.5

I was eying an under in this spot, especially with the early start time, but it looks like Jrue Holiday is going to be out, and that’s a big loss for the Boston defense. The Celtics can basically lock up East Group C with a win in this game, so I’m not too worried about the odd, one game road trip spot, but I am going to pass on this game. My numbers are close to the betting markets, and I don’t see any matchup angles to attack. 

Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies +7, 220

Kevin Durant suddenly appeared on the injury report late Friday morning as questionable. It looks like Devin Booker is going to play, which should enough to beat Memphis, but if Phoenix wants to make the knockout stage of the IST, they need to win this game by a big margin which means they need Durant. Perhaps that’s not a priority for them, but we can’t bet this game until we know what happens with Durant. If Durant is in, I’ll play a Suns team total over so make sure you get into the FTN Bets Discord to get that pick in the #nba-plays channel.

Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5, 229.5

These prices are within a point of my projections. Keegan Murray is out and he’s the type of player who is important to his team but doesn’t have a statistical profile that allows us to value his absence properly. Said another way, I think the market and I are too low on Sacramento without Murray, but I’m also not betting it. Minnesota locks up West Group C with a win, so I think there’s a chance they win big, but, again, I’m not betting on it.

Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks -11.5, 245

One of the most important parts of handicapping is understanding your blind spots, and I have a few in this game. First, my model more or less always likes a team that’s a double-digit handicap. It doesn’t understand properly the probabilities of potential blowouts or how bad some teams can really be. Second, I don’t have a great feel for this Washington Wizards team yet. With all that in mind, I’ll pass on this game.

Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers -7.5, 245.5

My projections agree with this pricing, and there are questions about both teams’ levels of effort here. The Pacers have locked up East Group A and a spot in the knockout stage. This is a one-game road trip for the Pistons who are still missing their best shooters. Normally, I’d bet a Pistons team total under, but not against an Indiana team that is changing the meaning of “fast paced.”

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors -9.5, 235.5

The Spurs have lost 10 consecutive games and may not win again any time soon. There’s not a game before Christmas where San Antonio will be big underdogs, but then there’s a home game against Utah and a two-game series against Portland that might be the end of this streak. I make the Warriors 11-point favorites with a total of 237 which had me close to a GSW team total over, but off the holiday, before a two-day break, and then a road game at Sacramento may have the Warriors a little distracted. I’ll pass.

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers -5, 227

My projections say Clippers, but my brain says Pelicans. My model has the Clippers as 6.5-point favorites, but my model doesn’t know that New Orleans needs to win for the IST and is built on attacking the rim which is a weakness for Los Angeles. I generally pass when I find myself in this situation, and although I really want to back the Pelicans, I will not.