Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Giants vs. Patriots
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-113/-121).
The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (-113) after it opened @ 18.5 (-121).
Pros
- A throwing game script is implied by the Giants being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 131.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- While Daniel Bellinger has earned 4.7% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in New York’s passing attack in this week’s contest at 12.8%.
- Daniel Bellinger is positioned as one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging an excellent 9.29 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the New York Giants ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
- Daniel Bellinger has posted quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
- Daniel Bellinger’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 91.2% to 85.0%.
- With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Daniel Bellinger rates as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the league in the open field.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
