Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-125) after it opened @ 15.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.4 per game) this year.
Noah Fant’s 9.5 adjusted yards per target this year shows a substantial progression in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 7.6 mark.
Noah Fant’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, averaging 7.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 5.30 rate last year.

Cons

The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 56.0 per game on average).
Noah Fant has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (25.0 per game).
Noah Fant’s 14.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 24.6.
This year, the stout 49ers defense has yielded a measly 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards