Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-125) after it opened @ 15.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.4 per game) this year.
- Noah Fant’s 9.5 adjusted yards per target this year shows a substantial progression in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 7.6 mark.
- Noah Fant’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, averaging 7.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 5.30 rate last year.
Cons
- The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 56.0 per game on average).
- Noah Fant has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (25.0 per game).
- Noah Fant’s 14.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 24.6.
- This year, the stout 49ers defense has yielded a measly 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
