Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-131) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- In this week’s game, Mike Evans is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.9 targets.
- After accumulating 117.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has produced significantly more this year, currently averaging 128.0 per game.
- With an exceptional 69.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (89th percentile) this year, Mike Evans stands as one of the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.
Cons
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-slowest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per snap.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the league.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Indianapolis’s group of safeties has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
