Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the projection model to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 59.9 per game on average).
- The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Michael Pittman rates as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 69.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Receiving Yards
83
Receiving Yards
