Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-104) after it opened @ 86.5 (-117).

Pros

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 133.6 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Keenan Allen has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (104.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 134.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
This year, the fierce Ravens defense has allowed the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a puny 6.5 yards.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards