Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-120).
Pros
- The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Saints to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- This year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons defense has been torched for a massive 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 7th-worst in football.
Cons
- Juwan Johnson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Juwan Johnson has been used much less in his team’s passing attack.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year.
- Juwan Johnson’s 18.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year shows a noteable drop-off in his receiving skills over last year’s 32.0 mark.
- Juwan Johnson’s 62.7% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 67.7% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
