Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a big 13.5-point favorite in this game.
- Jake Ferguson’s 75.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a remarkable regression in his receiving ability over last season’s 84.5% mark.
- The Washington Commanders defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) to tight ends this year.
- This year, the fierce Commanders defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a feeble 6.5 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
