Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a big 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Jake Ferguson’s 75.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a remarkable regression in his receiving ability over last season’s 84.5% mark.
The Washington Commanders defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) to tight ends this year.
This year, the fierce Commanders defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a feeble 6.5 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards