Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-148/+108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-148) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
In this contest, George Kittle is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets.
George Kittle has compiled far more air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, George Kittle has been more heavily relied on in his offense’s passing offense.
George Kittle has totaled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).

Cons

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards