Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-148/+108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-148) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- In this contest, George Kittle is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets.
- George Kittle has compiled far more air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, George Kittle has been more heavily relied on in his offense’s passing offense.
- George Kittle has totaled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).
Cons
- With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
