Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 5.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
George Kittle has been among the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 51.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
George Kittle has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards