Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jacoby Brissett from EV Insight

Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards

Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 201.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-115).

Pros

The Browns are a heavy 7.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more yards per game (246.0) this season than he did last season (125.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 33.0 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (66.5%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, conceding 6.66 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
195
Passing Yards