Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tim Boyle in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Garrett Wilson’s 97.1% Route% this year signifies a meaningful gain in his passing game usage over last year’s 86.4% figure.
This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a staggering 171.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
Garrett Wilson profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 58.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 19th percentile among wideouts

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards