Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tim Boyle in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- Garrett Wilson’s 97.1% Route% this year signifies a meaningful gain in his passing game usage over last year’s 86.4% figure.
- This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a staggering 171.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
- Garrett Wilson profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 58.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 19th percentile among wideouts
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
