Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this week’s game, D.K. Metcalf is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 91st percentile among wide receivers with 9.3 targets.
D.K. Metcalf checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 60.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
This year, the deficient 49ers pass defense has surrendered a massive 71.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 5th-largest rate in the league.

Cons

The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
The 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards