Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to earn 9.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 27.2% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (153.0) vs. wideouts this year.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
DK Metcalf has been among the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a measly 7.49 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile among WRs
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards