Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-135) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to garner 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 55.0 yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
Deebo Samuel has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards