Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
49ers vs. Saints
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-135) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to garner 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 55.0 yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
- Deebo Samuel has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
