Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Commanders vs. Falcons
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has run for quite a few more yards per game (65.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
- Cordarrelle Patterson’s running efficiency has gotten a boost this season, totaling 5.29 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.95 rate last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Cordarrelle Patterson to be a much smaller part of his offense’s rushing attack this week (33.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (43.6% in games he has played).
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in football (just 103 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
