Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-123/-111).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-111) after it opened @ 55.5 (-119).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per snap.
- The model projects Diontae Johnson to total 8.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- After averaging 89.0 air yards per game last year, Diontae Johnson has undergone big improvement this year, now averaging 97.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Diontae Johnson has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s air attack.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, allowing 9.52 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
- Diontae Johnson’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 61.4% to 56.2%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
