Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-123/-111).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-111) after it opened @ 55.5 (-119).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per snap.
The model projects Diontae Johnson to total 8.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.
After averaging 89.0 air yards per game last year, Diontae Johnson has undergone big improvement this year, now averaging 97.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Diontae Johnson has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s air attack.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, allowing 9.52 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
Diontae Johnson’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 61.4% to 56.2%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards