Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Broncos vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-135) after it opened @ 37.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 66.9 plays per game.
- The projections expect David Njoku to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The Browns O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- With an outstanding 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) this year, David Njoku has been as one of the best pass-game tight ends in football.
- David Njoku’s 8.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a meaningful progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 5.2% mark.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 52.0% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
- After averaging 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has regressed heavily this season, now boasting 21.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, David Njoku has been utilized much less in his offense’s pass game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
