Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-135) after it opened @ 37.5 (-119).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 66.9 plays per game.
The projections expect David Njoku to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Browns O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With an outstanding 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) this year, David Njoku has been as one of the best pass-game tight ends in football.
David Njoku’s 8.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a meaningful progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 5.2% mark.

Cons

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 52.0% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
After averaging 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has regressed heavily this season, now boasting 21.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, David Njoku has been utilized much less in his offense’s pass game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards