Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-122/-106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-106) after it opened @ 51.5 (-113).
Pros
- The projections expect the Bills to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.9 per game) this year.
- The model projects Dalton Kincaid to earn 8.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- While Dalton Kincaid has been responsible for 16.8% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Buffalo’s offense in this week’s game at 10.5%.
- With an excellent 44.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the leading TE receiving threats in football.
Cons
- With respect to a defense’s effect on tempo, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the model projects the Buffalo Bills as the most sluggish in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- The Eagles safeties profile as the 6th-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
