Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Broncos vs. Browns
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-141).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- With a remarkable 91.9% Route Participation Rate (89th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton places as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in football.
- Our trusted projections expect Courtland Sutton to accumulate 6.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
- The Denver O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Courtland Sutton grades out as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 58.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Broncos offensive approach to skew 1.4% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
