Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 7.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Christian Kirk’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 68.9%.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
