Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to earn 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Chris Olave has totaled a colossal 124.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.7%) versus WRs this year (70.7%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
Chris Olave has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 61.8% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers
Chris Olave has been among the bottom WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards