College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 65.5 (-105).
Pros
- The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- In this week’s game, Chris Olave is projected by the predictive model to land in the 96th percentile among WRs with 10.4 targets.
Cons
- When talking about pocket protection (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year.
- Chris Olave comes in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, catching just 57.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 18th percentile among wideouts
- Chris Olave’s 7.1 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a meaningful decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 8.4 figure.
- With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Chris Olave ranks as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football in space.
- This year, the imposing Falcons defense has conceded a puny 129.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 5th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
