Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-120).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected by the projection model to run 66.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
- The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a massive 59.9 per game on average).
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- This year, the porous Houston Texans defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a whopping 8.99 yards.
Cons
- With a subpar 59.9% Adjusted Catch% (25th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley stands among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts.
- Calvin Ridley checks in as one of the worst wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Houston’s collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
